Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
