A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has got something to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
